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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/15 11:07

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday

   Corn futures are 16 to 18 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
48 to 55 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 15 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 16 to 18 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
48 to 55 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 15 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is firmer with the DOW up 40 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 65 points 
higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are sharply weaker with 
crude down 4.10. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are weaker with gold 
$20.00 lower.


   Corn futures are 16 to 18 cents lower at midday with trade putting a small 
gap lower on the open before fading further with improved weather for the 
Western Corn Belt this week, along with pressure from outside markets, 
especially energies. Short-term forecasts have moisture for some of the drier 
areas to start the week with more moderate temperatures. Weekly export 
inspections were softer at 538,406 metric tons (mt). Ethanol margins will 
continue to be limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded 
futures back to the lows this morning before finding support. Basis will be 
watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board rally 
and harvest starts in the South. On the WASDE report, yield came in at 175.4 
bushels per acre (bpa) versus. 175.8 bpa expected. Production edged lower to 
14.389 billion bushels (bb). New crop carryout faded from 1.470 bb to 1.388 bb. 
World numbers edged slightly lower. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report is 
expected to show conditions steady to lower, with maturity just behind the 
five-year average. On the September chart, support is the 20-day moving average 
at $6.04 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.40, which we 
faded back from Friday's close. 


   Soybean futures are 48 to 55 cents lower at midday with better rains and 
weaker energies putting pressure on action Monday morning after the mostly 
negative WASDE report, while spread trade reversed course. Meal is $15.00 to 
$16.00 lower, and oil is 60 to 70 lower On the WASDE report, yield rose .4 bpa 
to 51.9 bpa versus 51.1 bpa expected with acres slightly lower to leave 
production mostly flat. Carryout was 225 million bushels (mb) versus 215 mb 
expected. World numbers edged just a bit higher on stocks. Biodiesel margins 
remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South America is on post-harvest 
footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September, while the 
bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of pod-fill season with less 
stressful weather this week expected. Basis has rebounded with the old-crop 
strength the last couple days as well. Weekly export inspections showed 
improvement again at 744,571 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected to show 
steady to slightly lower conditions, with maturity getting closer to the 
five-year average. On the September soybean chart, support is the 20-day moving 
average at $14.35, which we are well above, while November bounced off the 
20-day moving average at $13.94, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.64, which 
we have faded from.


   Wheat futures are 9 to 15 cents lower at midday with negative spillover from 
the row crops and the dollar pulling trade back from the recent highs with a 
bounce off the early test of support. The report edged world numbers slightly 
lower, with domestic carryout falling to 610 mb from 639 last month. Plains 
weather looks for better short-term moisture with deficits needing to be eased 
ahead of planting. Spring wheat harvest should expand significantly this week. 
The dollar is rebounding a bit with mixed inflation ideas. Black Sea potential 
is still being watched as ships continue to trickle out of Ukraine. Egypt has 
been making some purchases without tenders while MATIF values edge higher. 
Weekly export inspections faded a little bit to 373,227 mt. Weekly crop 
progress should show winter wheat harvest effectively complete. Spring wheat 
conditions should be steady to lower and harvest still well behind the 
five-year average. The KC September chart had resistance at the 20-day moving 
average at $8.62, which trade bounced off again, with the Upper Bollinger band 
at $8.98, the next round up.

   David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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