DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/14 10:55

   Corn Up, Soybeans Down Midday Friday

   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher, beans are 4 to 5 cents lower and wheat is 
2 to 7 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow off 310 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.25 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are 
firmer with crude up 1.15. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals 
are weaker with gold off $4.00.

CORN:

   Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Friday with firmer spread trade 
as we continue to hold nearby support levels with the recent sideways action. 
Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by tepid short-term demand with 
production expected to slide further as demand looks to remain soft into next 
week. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker short term with weather 
likely to slow short-term movement. Trade will continue watching South American 
weather more as we get closer to the key weather time frames on new crop as 
well as soybean progress for the timing of double-crop planting. The daily 
export wire showed 100,422 metric tons sold to Mexico. On the March contract, 
we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $5.99 then the lower 
Bollinger Band at $5.85 as further support.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with light two-sided trade so far, after 
testing the early week lows at the start of the overnight session with position 
squaring likely into the long weekend as trade looks to see if the awaited 
rains hit the dry areas in South America. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil 
is 0.05 cent to 0.15 cent lower. Basis remains mostly flat short term with the 
export wire quiet Friday. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable 
diesel demand likely to keep good support under oil going forward. The daily 
wire showed 100,000 metric tons of meal sold to Spain for new crop. On the 
March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $14.15 which we 
scored a week ago, and the 20-day well below the market at $13.61 as support.

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower with Chicago trade trying to turn the 
corner at midday, along with Minneapolis trying to stabilize the recent washout 
after dropping from $10.00 to sub $9.00 in 8 sessions. The dollar continues to 
work sideways at the lower end of the range. Weather in the Plains looks drier 
with a little snow cover out of the last system while temps continue to 
fluctuate keeping stress intact and other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns 
fading for the moment while political fears ramp up again. Spring wheat is 
weaker versus Chicago moving the premium to 1.46 cents on the March, with KC at 
an 8-cent premium in weaker action as well. KC March chart support is the lower 
Bollinger Band at $7.42 with the 20-day at $8.04, still well above the market.

   David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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