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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/24 10:56

   Grains Trending Lower at Midday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 15 to 17 cents lower, and wheat is 
flat to 3 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 5 points. The dollar index 
is 10 points higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are 
mixed. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker 
with gold flat.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with harvest pressure and long 
liquidation picking up steam with spillover pressure from the soybean pit. The 
daily export wire was quiet for corn today. Ethanol margins are seeing support 
from cheaper corn. Basis has started to slide towards harvest levels in many 
areas with open weather allowing combines to roll. Weekly export sales were 
strong at 2.14 million metric tons. On the December contract, trade has support 
at the $3.64 20-day moving average which we are testing at midday, with the 
recent high at $3.78 as resistance.


   Soybean trade is 15 to 17 cents lower at midday with trade testing $10.00 
with harvest pressure and fund profit taking in play, with the daily export 
string ending, but spreads holding firm. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 lower and oil is 
40 to 50 points lower. The ral remains in the lower end of the range ahead of 
South American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while Argentine 
farmer selling remains slow. Export offers continue to get tighter in 
availability as well with meal driving the product complex. Weekly export sales 
were strong at 3.19 million metric tons, meal was 323,300 metric tons net, with 
oil 24,800 metric tons net. The November chart has resistance at the upper 
Bollinger Band at $10.46 which is also the fresh high with support the 20-day 
at $9.88.


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower at midday with spillover from the row 
crops and the stronger dollar providing headwinds. The dollar remains steady 
vs. the ruble with little change in world export competitiveness with more 
focus on the dry start in Russia. Kansas City is at a 68-cent discount to 
Chicago with spreads widening again after the recent strength, while 
Minneapolis is back to a 16 cent discount with flat action. Wheat drilling 
progress should expand across the plains short term with OK moisture for most 
for now but follow-up rain lacking. Weekly export sales were soft at 351,200 
metric tons. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.09, 
and support is the 20-day at $4.78, which we are tested this a.m.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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