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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/02 11:05

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, and wheat is 5 
to 7 cents lower.

David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is higher with the Dow 240 points higher. The dollar 
index is 8 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are 
firmer with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are firmer with gold up $10.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with profit taking ahead of the long 
weekend with the forecast in flux. The forecast has limited short-term issues 
for now with warmth expected to continue into early July with a drier tinge for 
much of the belt as we go into pollination. Ethanol margins are stable today 
with gasoline demand showing further softness. Weekly export sales remain soft 
at 361,100 metric tons old, 262,700 of new, but China bought 202,000 metric 
tons of new crop. On the September contract, support is the 20-day at 3.34 with 
resistance the $3.53 3/4 highs.


   Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with China making purchases 
for new crop but light profit taking showing ahead of the weekend. Meal is 
narrowly mixed, and oil 5 to 15 points lower. The real is up slightly against 
the dollar, and at the midpoint of the recent range. Crush margins have seen 
little change in recent days. Weather should remain mostly a non-issue for 
soybeans for the moment. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 241,700 
metric tons old, 841,700 of new, 143,000 metric tons of old meal, 13,000 of 
new, and 2,800 of oil with 126,000 metric tons sold to China for new crop on 
the daily wire. The August soybean chart resistance is the $8.96 fresh high, 
with support the upper Bollinger Band at $8.81.


   Wheat is 3 to 7 cents lower with choppy trade into a long harvest weekend. 
Little change has been seen in European and Russian weather with harvest 
expanding with most dryness in the harvest areas. The ruble remains in the 
recent range vs. the dollar with U.S. export competitiveness slipping the last 
couple of days. Kansas City is at a 58-cent discount to Chicago on the August, 
while Minneapolis is back to a 20 cent premium. Weekly export sales softened a 
bit to 414,300 metric tons of old crop, and 75,000 of new crop. The September 
Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.22, and resistance 
the 20-day at $4.47.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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