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Raelynn's Comments  04/23/20 3:31:27 PM

 April 23, 2020
Happy spring and planting season everyone.  We’re starting to see green everywhere in nature, and the markets have been kind in the last 48 hours and have given us some green there as well.  But how many green days are ahead? 
No question, to help our markets we need to get our economy back going.  But it’s going to be a long process.  We’re finally seeing a potential end out there.  There is light at the end of the tunnel as they say.  However, that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear.  We may see a gradual incline in economic activity soon, but that doesn’t mean we’ll be smooth sailing through the rest of 2020.  Expect limited growth and downward slides as news of the true effects of this shutdown get released over the months ahead.  Going into a normally volatile time of year, let’s just add in a once-in-a-lifetime (hopefully) pandemic. Fasten your seatbelts ladies and gentlemen.    
On a positive note, I feel that nearby corn has found at least a temporary low.  Historically, we see markets put in a low around this time of year with our focus turning to weather.  Pair that with the news China plans to purchase 20 million mt (787 mil bushels) of US corn can help keep that bottom in place through planting season.  Of course, we all know you can only trust the information coming out of China to a certain degree.  But what backs it up is the price of corn in China is at a high they haven’t seen since 2015.  With our prices at its current lows, it’s an attractive market for China to dip into. 
So, hopefully we’ve seen a stop to the bleeding.  There are too many unknowns with ethanol that it would be silly to expect big gains but stopping the downward trend would be a welcome change.  Next resistance points should be 10 to 15 cents higher UNLESS we see a weather issue develop.  Right now, US weather is fairly favorable so no support at this point.  Make cash sales on old crop if we see $3.35 then $3.40 on July futures.  As for new crop, if Dec futures get to $3.50 start making sales.  I know these are not the prices we want to sell at, but it is very possible that we’ll see under $3.00 on Dec futures in the fall if we have no crop concerns.    
I hope everyone has a safe planting season! 

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