USDA Hogs & Pigs Report               09/24 14:27

US Sept. 1 Hog Inventory Down 4% From Year Ago 

                           2020         2021     2022    2021 as   2022 as
                                                         percent   percent
                                                         of 2020   of 2021
                       (1,000 head) (1,000 head)        (percent)

All Hogs Sept. 1         78,434        75,352               96%
Kept for Breeding         6,333         6,190               98%
Kept for Marketing       72,101        69,162               96%

WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
Under 50 lbs.            23,144        21,855               94%
50-119 lbs.              21,020        19,751               94%
120-179 lbs.             14,867        14,656               99%
180 lbs.                 13,069        12,899               99%

FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS* 
Jun-Aug                   3,260         3,046               93%
Sep-Nov*                  3,132         3,000               96%
Dec-Feb*                  3,068         2,922    2,962      95%     101%
Jun-Aug Pig Crop         36,056        33,900               94%

                          (number)    (number)           (percent)

Jun-Aug Pigs Per Litter   11.06         11.13              101%


This article was originally posted at 2:27 p.m. CDT on Friday, Sept. 24. 
It was last updated at 2:52 p.m. CDT on Friday, Sept. 24.

**

OMAHA (DTN) -- United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1, 
2021, was 75.4 million head. This was down 4% from Sept. 1, 2020, but up 
1% from June 1, 2021. Breeding inventory, at 6.19 million head, was down 
2% from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter, USDA NASS 
said on Friday.

Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, was down 4% from last year, 
but up 1% from last quarter.

The June-August 2021 pig crop, at 33.9 million head, was down 6% from 
2020. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.05 million head, down 7% 
from 2020. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49% of the 
breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.13 for the June-
August period, compared to 11.06 last year.

DTN ANALYSIS

"The total number of hogs in the nation's swine herd fell 4% from 2020 
levels in the September report. With a total of 75.3 million head, this is 
a reduction of 3.1 million head within the last year. This reduction in 
overall hog numbers is well below pre-report estimates and is likely to be 
seen as slightly bullish by the market," said DTN Analyst Rick Kment. 

"The reduction in hog numbers is consistent with losses seen in the March 
1 and June 1 inventory reports, where hog numbers have fallen 3% and 4%, 
respectively, through the year. Sows farrowing during the June-through-
August time period were down 7% from a year ago, creating the expectation 
that lower hog numbers will continue through the end of the year and well 
into early 2022.

"Farrowing intentions in September through November and December through 
May are expected at 96% of year-ago levels. It is not until next spring 
that farrowing intentions are expected to inch higher. But, even then, it 
appears that limited expansion is likely to be seen at this point. 

"Market hogs are below year-ago levels in all categories, with the most 
significant reductions seen in hogs under 120 pounds, 6% below year-ago 
levels. 

"The market is likely to focus on all categories in the report, and it is 
likely to carry a generally bullish tone. But the question traders will 
have to face early next week is how much of this report has already been 
factored into the market due to the aggressive rally over the last few 
trading sessions," Kment said.

**
To view the full Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, visit 
https://www.nass.usda.gov/